Donbass is believed to be the origin of the Russia-Ukraine conflict a decade ago, which resulted in heavy casualties on both sides. This territory continues to be the main subject in negotiations seeking a solution to the current conflict.
Donbass – the focal point of all negotiations
For U.S. President Donald Trump, the map of Ukraine displayed on a stand in the Oval Office carried a clear message: Russia had seized a vast portion of eastern territory known as Donbass. That area, shaded in red, was considered lost. Ukraine needed to strike a deal in exchange for peace, or else risk losing even more territory.
But for President Volodymyr Zelensky, the same map—presented during his August 18 meeting with Trump and European leaders—told a far more complex story. This was not a transaction or a political gamble. It was personal. Zelensky told Trump that his grandfather had fought in World War II to liberate cities in Donbass, and he could not simply give it up.
It remains unclear where the recent diplomatic efforts initiated by Trump to end Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II will lead, but one thing is certain: Donbass—a mineral-rich region comprising Donetsk and Luhansk—will remain the focal point of all negotiations. Donbass has been the site of most of the fiercest battles. Russia is currently attempting to capture the remaining 6,500 square kilometers of Donbass still under Ukrainian control.
Previously, Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that Ukraine fully relinquish the entire Donbass region in the east, abandon its NATO membership ambitions, maintain neutrality, and prevent Western troops from being stationed on its territory, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
On August 15, Putin met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska during the first Russia-U.S. summit in more than four years. According to sources, nearly the entire three-hour closed-door session was devoted to discussions about a potential compromise regarding Ukraine.
Kyiv rejected these conditions, dismissing them as tantamount to surrender.
In his new proposal, Putin maintained the demand that Ukraine withdraw entirely from the parts of Donbass it still controls. In return, Moscow would be prepared to halt at the current frontlines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Russia now controls about 88% of Donbass and 73% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, according to U.S. estimates and open-source data. Furthermore, Russia indicated it was willing to return small areas of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk that it currently occupies as part of a potential agreement.
Putin also upheld his earlier demands, including Ukraine abandoning its NATO aspirations and securing a legally binding guarantee from the U.S.-led military alliance that NATO would not expand further eastward. Russia wants Ukraine’s military size to be limited and insists no Western troops be deployed on Ukrainian territory under the guise of peacekeeping forces.
Stalemate Continues in Donbass
Polls show that the majority of Ukrainians still oppose ceding any territory to Russia, and Ukraine’s Constitution also prohibits it. President Zelensky now faces a difficult choice: either support something the public rejects or risk confrontation with President Trump.
Zelensky has avoided answering reporters’ questions about whether he is willing to give up territory, stressing that this issue can only be discussed directly with President Putin—who has yet to agree to meet him.
Former Ukrainian officials and political analysts argue that the only way for Zelensky to persuade the public to accept territorial concessions would be to secure a U.S.-backed security guarantee—something Ukraine has not achieved since Trump ruled out NATO membership for the country.
However, such a guarantee would need to be strong enough—for instance, combining a European troop presence with U.S. air support—to deter Russia from future attacks.
Balazs Jarabik, a former EU political adviser in Kyiv, suggested that Ukraine may have reached the point of being ready to compromise “in exchange for a peace deal accompanied by Western security guarantees.”
The Trump administration believes that “a territorial trade-off is actually in Ukraine’s best interest, since they think Donbass will soon fall, leaving Kyiv with no bargaining chips,” said Maksym Skrypchenko, president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center in Kyiv.
However, according to Skrypchenko, Ukrainians see it differently. Russia has advanced very slowly in the region over the past three years. If Ukraine were to abandon the remainder of Donbass, it would also lose key cities and strategic fortifications.
As Russia continued its offensives on the battlefield, Zelensky last autumn for the first time floated the idea of temporarily conceding occupied territory to Russia in exchange for NATO-backed security guarantees. Trump rejected the proposal.
Still, Zelensky scored a victory last week when Trump announced that the U.S. would participate in providing security guarantees for Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio is now leading negotiations on the details.
The major question is whether Russia would accept such guarantees. Ukraine wants NATO-like protections, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has made clear that Ukraine joining NATO remains unacceptable to Moscow.
“Essentially, we are back to square one,” said Harry Nedelcu, an analyst at Rasmussen Global. According to him, “nothing will come” from peace talks in the near future, and instead: “I see much more fighting ahead.”