There are reasons to believe Griffin Canning can put a few nice starts together and make a case to crack the NL All-Star team.
There are also reasons for the Mets to wonder how long he will remain in the rotation.
Such is the state of the club’s rotation, whose impressive depth could mean danger for any member whose effectiveness wanes.
Within the next few weeks, the Mets — who entered play Wednesday with the best rotation ERA in baseball — are expected to make two additions to a group that does not have many obvious arms to subtract.
Frankie Montas will make his fifth rehab start Friday with Triple-A Syracuse, with whom he is expected to clear 80 pitches.
Sean Manaea is set to make his third rehab start Sunday — location TBD — when he could stretch out to about 60 pitches.
If both return healthy and capable, the Mets would have to make what Carlos Mendoza hopes is a “difficult decision” — and one that the Mets manager said is not yet being discussed.
“It usually plays itself out,” the manager said, referring to either injury or ineffectiveness striking, before the Mets blanked the Nationals 5-0 at Citi Field on Wednesday. “We’re still at least two weeks away from making those decisions.”
Kodai Senga owns a 1.59 ERA. Clay Holmes’ ERA sits at 2.95.
David Peterson has a 2.49 ERA following his complete-game shutout in Wednesday’s 5-0 win over the Nationals.
Tylor Megill is statistically the weakest link, but how many teams would love to have a hard-throwing fifth starter with a 3.76 ERA?
If Megill — who can be optioned to Triple-A Syracuse — gets booted for Montas, the arm most likely to go for Manaea would be Canning, who cannot be optioned.
Such a move would seem nearly unthinkable for an ostensible fourth starter who has appeared to find himself in Queens and is 6-2 with a 3.22 ERA.
But if the Mets send Canning to the bullpen or use him as a spot starter when a sixth starter is needed, he would understand.
“It’s out of my control,” Canning said Wednesday. “It’s been super fun being a part of this team. We all just want to win. So I think whatever they think is best.
“I think we’ll just cross that bridge when we get there.”
Canning was brought in as a $4.25 million depth option and has pitched like a steal, even if he has been hit harder in his past four starts.
He pitched to a 2.47 ERA nine outings into the season before letting up 10 earned runs in his past 17 innings (5.29 ERA), including surrendering four runs in 5 ¹/₃ innings Tuesday.
He was victimized by three hits (including a home run) from Washington’s CJ Abrams, all from pitches either outside the zone or on the edge.
He was not serving up meatballs — the pitches were located and thrown well. A day later, he regretted throwing down and away to Abrams.
“Maybe just right pitches, maybe wrong location,” he said.
Canning was not destroyed and was coming off six brilliant, scoreless innings at Dodger Stadium.
But any sign of weakness from a Mets starter at this point leaves a rotation spot in doubt.
And if Megill, Canning or another gets odd-man-outed of a rolling rotation, there would be a spotlight on Manaea and Montas once they are ready to help.
While Manaea looked sharp in 2 ²/₃ scoreless innings Tuesday with High-A Brooklyn, Montas has allowed 12 runs in 12 minor league innings, most recently letting up three runs on four hits and two walks in 3 ²/₃ innings with Syracuse on Sunday.
Mendoza said Montas has been working with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner to clean up his mechanics and that the club is “not too concerned right now” about the poor results. Montas will make at least one more rehab start and potentially more.
“This is kind of like spring training for him,” Mendoza said of Montas. “It’s hard to put too much into it.”